The AI Superforecasters Are Here

I generally disagree with Sayash and Arvind, but this is the prediction of theirs that I’ve thought about the longest, without being able to find any decisive refutation. It’s a great test case! If AI hits top-human level forecasting and then flattens off, maybe there’s something special about the human level, and S&A will also be right about superpersuasion, super-research, etc (at least for the near-term). If it keeps going, reaching heights far beyond the human maximum, then we should be concerned that it will do the same thing in other skills too. We’ll start to have a good idea which world we’re in within a year; after two years, the answer should be decisive.